Nate Silver yesterday posted an article called, "Why Obama Wants the Olympics". He points to the fact that after 3 of the 4 U.S.-hosted Summer Olympics, the incumbent president has won re-election. Even putting aside the fact that Obama won't be running as an incumbent in 2016, the article has a grand total of four data points. Four. It's like something out of the Elias Baseball Annuals.
In the comments section of the Silver article, someone says that InTrade has Chicago's chance of hosting at 57%. I'd verify that if I had more energy right now.
I'll have something especially narcissistic to post tomorrow because I'm scheduled to talk in front of an audience this evening! About the history of Hyde Park!