In a Hyde Park Progress comment, Deep Throat ruminates about the Co-op's sales:
Based on Treasurer Lowenthal's financial report at the annual meeting, it looks like even the 55th Street store has trailed industry benchmarks for the last few years. For example, revenue growth from that store has essentially been flat from FY 2003 through FY 2007. (This was shown in bar chart form, so I don't have actual figures yet).
The flat growth actually goes back all the way to 1995, I believe. Yes, the Co-op's sales have essentially been flat since 1995-- and there was only one store owned by the Society at the time. However, on a square footage basis, I'm told that our sales are very respectable.
Just for perspective, supermarket sales typically grow in line with GDP -- unless there have been some changes in the local trading area, like an increase in population. So, we would expect the Co-Op's sales to grow about 2% a year, and we'd throw in another 1% in food inflation (though we expect food inflation to be higher this calendar year thanks to higher feed prices and a worldwide surge in demand for dairy). So, in the absence of any big change in population or nearby competitors, we should be seeing the 55th Street store rack up sales growth in the neighborhood of 3% annually.
That's sales for the entire grocery industry, which is the wrong benchmark to use. The appropriate benchmark would be year-to-year same-store sales for similar non-niche players in the city like Dominick's or Jewel. If there were a decent sample size of 30,000 square foot stores, then an average of their year-to-year might be even more appropriate. I don't know what either figure would be. Nonetheless, I'd agree that a sales target for the Co-op should be about 30% higher than current, somewhere in the $32M range. However, before we got to that figure, we'd probably have parking lot woes, so that last $3M might be tough.
At the very least, I would have expected to see some modest bump in 55th Street sales in FY 2005 when the 47th Street store closed and shoppers would have shifted to the original location.
Well, you also want to keep in mind that this fiscal year includes the unforgivable tragedy of losing the register scanners for several weeks last fall. That we were able to still recover and make over $1M at the 55th St store seems remarkable in the context of that and not having a General Manager for nine months.
I'm also lost with the Co-Op's murky financials. And I pick apart financial statements to diagnose companies for a living. This is some of the worst disclosure I've ever run across. The Co-Op is not a privately-held entity where financial conditions can be kept quiet -- it is accountable to its 22,000 members who have an ownership stake in the business.
Oh, I'd guess our disclosures are typical for a one-store, $25M business. That's not sufficient, but it compares favorably with what you'd get from any non-cooperative business. Plus, the written disclosures are not the totality of what's available. Any member is welcome to come to the O&F meetings once a month and ask questions. I've never seen Treasurer Lowenthal refuse to answer a reasonable question.
Just keep in mind that personnel, vendor relations and real estate are privileged and not information that companies tend to share in public forums, even with their stockholders. And again, you're expecting the Co-op to be especially forthcoming when you're choosing to keep your own identity secret.
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