Mid-term Election Predictions

The smart money (Nate Silver and Charlie Cook) has the Dems losing about 55 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate with Reps making mixed gains in the gubernatorial races.  I'm going optmistic, though.  I'm betting that the story of the night will be that the Tea Baggers, loud as they are, just didn't turn out in the same numbers as organized labor and most other reliable Dem constituencies.

Governors' races: Republicans pick up Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Maine, Wisconsin (again barely) and New Mexico from the Dems.  Dems pick up California, Hawaii, Minnesota, Florida, Vermont and Connecticut from the Republicans.  Rhode Island switches from Rep to Ind.  Illinois and Ohio stay with Dems.

Senate: North Dakota, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Arkansas switch from Dem to Rep.  Dems hang on in Wisconsin with Feingold, counter to all predictions.  Dems sweep close races in Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Washington and West Virginia.  Dems end up with 55 seats.

House: Worse news for the Dems, but not as bad as predicted-- net gain of 37 for the Republicans.  (Reps pick up 41, but lose 4 of their own to the Dems in Hawaii, Illinois 10, Delaware and New Orleans.)  In order of state poll closings, Dems lose Indiana 8 and 9.  Virginia 2 and 5 flip to Reps, plus Florida 2 and 8, Georgia 8 and South Carolina 5.  Two Ohio seats flip-- 1 and 5.  With 8pm EST closings, lotsa carnage for Dems: South Dakota, Alabama 2 and 5, Pennsylvania 3, 7, 8 and 10, Michigan 1, Maryland 1, Mississippi 1 and 4, New Hampshire 1, Tennessee 4, 6 and 8, Texas 17 and Illinois 11.  Arkansas sees 1 and 2 switch from Dems to Reps.  New Mexico 2, Colorado 4, Louisiana 3, Kansas 3 and New York 29 fall to Reps.  An hour later, it's Arizona 1 and 5, Nevada 3, North Dakota and Idaho 1.  At 11pm EST, just one west coast seat-- Washington 3.  (If that doesn't total up to a net 37-seat Rep gain, go ahead and sue me; my dad is Li Gang.)

Anyway, Nancy Pelosi wakes up Wednesday morning with a much more unified, albeit minority, caucus because all the moderate Dems are gone from the House.  Harry Reid has a job, but he'll be working with Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman and now Joe Manchin all supposedly on his side.  This prediction means that red states are going to be very red and blue states will be about like they are now.

Comments

[james]

It looks like it's headed toward a 60-seat gain for the Repubs, with Boucher in VA going down, Chandler having trouble in KY, Nye and Connelly in VA are behind. Perriello in VA loses by 6, but he can hold his head high. Bright spot is a decent-sized win for soon to be Sen. Manchin in WV.

[james]

Dems may just lose one seat in Indiana-- Baron Hill's. Ben Chandler seat in KY may go to recount. They may hold onto everything in North Carolina, but Virginia is a slaughterhouse-- my favorite Perriello makes it close, but Boucher and Nye also lose, with Connelly on the ropes. In Virginia, Boyd loses big, which is no big deal, but Kosmas and Grayson also lose big and Klein is still too early to tell. WV keeps its Dem Senate seat, but Oliverio is behind.

[james]

Dems lose a seat in New Hampshire, but Pennsylvania so far looks stronger than expected. Ohio could be a bloodbath, with 5 seats changing to Reps.

[james]

Ooops, a couple Pennsylvania seats look lost, although Sestak is doing ok. Ohio looks bleak. A WV seat will probably fall to Reps. 2 seats in Georgia fall and it might get to 4 in Florida and just Etheridge in North Carolina.

[james]

Three House seats in Illinois will probably fall to Reps, a fourth is in danger and it looks like we won't pick up the 10th where Dan Seals is running. A little bit better at the state level in IL, with Quinn looking ok and Giannoulis having a chance.

[james]

And the Dems ended up losing 4 House seats plus the Governor's mansion in PA, with Sestak now behind.